Universal precursor seismicity pattern before locked-segment rupture and evolutionary rule for landmark earthquakes
锁定段破裂前的通用前兆地震活动模式及标志性地震的演化规律
ロックセグメント破壊前の普遍的な前駆体地震活動パターンとランドマーク地震の進化規則
고정 세그먼트 파열 이전의 보편적인 전조 지진 패턴과 획기적인 지진에 대한 진화 규칙
Patrón de sismicidad precursora universal antes de la ruptura del segmento bloqueado y regla evolutiva para terremotos históricos
Modèle de sismicité précurseur universel avant la rupture du segment verrouillé et règle évolutive pour les séismes marquants
Универсальный предвестник сейсмичности до разрыва заблокированных сегментов и эволюционное правило для знаковых землетрясений
Hongran Chen 陈竑然 ¹ ², Siqing Qin 秦四清 ¹ ² ³, Lei Xue 薛雷 ¹ ², Baicun Yang 杨百存 ⁴, Ke Zhang 张珂 ¹ ² ³
¹ Key Laboratory of Shale Gas and Geoengineering, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
中国 中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所 岩气与地质工程重点实验室
² Innovation Academy for Earth Science, CAS, China
中国 中国科学院地球科学研究院
³ College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
中国 中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院
⁴ School of Resources and Civil Engineering, Northeastern University, China
中国 东北大学资源与土木工程学院
Despite extensive investigations, no precursor patterns for reliably predicting major earthquakes have been identified as yet. Seismogenic locked segments that can accumulate adequate strain energy to cause major earthquakes are highly heterogeneous and low brittle.
The progressive cracking of the locked segments with these properties can produce an interesting seismic phenomenon: a landmark earthquake and a sequence of smaller subsequent earthquakes (pre-shocks) always arise prior to another landmark earthquake within a well-defined seismic zone and its current seismic period. Applying a mechanical model, magnitude constraint conditions, and case study data of 62 worldwide seismic zones, we show that two adjacent landmark earthquakes reliably occur at the volume-expansion point and peak-stress point (rupture) of a locked segment; thus, the former is an identified precursor for the latter.
Such a precursor seismicity pattern before the locked-segment rupture has definite physical meanings, and it is universal regardless of the focal depth. Because the evolution of landmark earthquakes follows a deterministic rule described by the model, they are predictable. The results of this study lay a firm physical foundation for reliably predicting the occurrence of future landmark earthquakes in a seismic zone and can greatly improve our understanding of earthquake generation mechanism.
